Core thesis
Electricity supply, grid flexibility and interconnection speed are becoming direct constraints on digital and industrial investment.
What the evidence says
The IEA expects advanced-economy electricity demand to rise again after roughly 15 years of stagnation.
The IEA projects China's electricity demand growth to average 4.9% annually from 2026 through 2030.
Microsoft reported adding another gigawatt of capacity in FY2026 Q4 and remains on track to roughly double capacity in two years.
Portfolio implication
Prefer assets with contracted demand, secured grid access and conservative leverage. Treat permitting and construction execution as underwriting variables, not footnotes.
What would change our view
Permitting delays postpone cash flow
Equipment inflation weakens project returns
Power-price exposure is not fully contracted
Primary sources
Public facts are linked to primary sources. Portfolio weights and return assumptions are illustrative.