Investment process
A decision process that can be challenged
Every position begins with a falsifiable thesis, a valuation range and explicit exit conditions.
The process is the product
A strong idea is not enough. It must survive evidence review, portfolio constraints and named exit conditions.
Define the decision
Write the objective, benchmark, liquidity need and loss tolerance before collecting evidence.
Build the evidence
Prioritize filings, official statistics, supplier checks and management disclosures.
Challenge the thesis
Assign a reviewer to state what would make the thesis wrong and how quickly it could change.
Construct the position
Size by expected contribution, downside, liquidity and correlation with existing risks.
Monitor change
Review price, fundamentals and thesis triggers on separate schedules to avoid narrative drift.
Worked thesis
Power equipment as an AI infrastructure bottleneck
Demand is supported by data-center interconnection, grid reinforcement and industrial electrification. The position is valid only where order-book visibility, pricing power and funded capacity expansion are evidenced.
Disconfirming signals
Order cancellations exceed new bookings
Lead times normalize without margin support
Capacity expansion requires leverage above policy